Betting Strategy & Psychology

How to find value bets in the Champions League

You might have heard of Elo ratings but what is it exactly and how can they be applied to betting to increase your winnings? A must read for anybody planning to bet on the second leg matches of the UEFA Champions League semi-final phase.

How to run a Monte Carlo simulation in Excel

Following the discussion of Randomness in sporting outcomes, Joseph Buchdahl is taking the analysis of the factor of luck to the next level. Find out how randomness can influence your betting performance and how you can measure it by using Excel.

Past performance is not an indicator of future results

From betting tipsters to financial advisors, past data is widely used to predict future events. In this article, Dominic Cortis discusses the pitfalls and advantages of this method and explains why prediction models failed to predict Leicester’s chances of winning the league.

Don’t be fooled by randomness in sports betting

Betting on sport is, by nature, a very uncertain business, but can bettors keep a tight grip on the randomness of it all? Joseph Buchdahl looks at the best way to tackle the inevitable randomness in sports betting.

The most jaw-dropping statistic every bettor should know

At any stage during a match, either one side is ahead or we have equality with a variable number of changes in the lead. Ever wondered how often the lead changes? Hint: Don’t put your money on what your intuition is telling you. Read on to find out why!