Betting Strategy & Psychology

A guide to hedging outright markets in sports betting

From the world of finances to casino games, hedging is a key strategy applied across the board by professional bettors as a means of reducing risk and securing winnings. Here’s how to use hedging in the outright sports betting markets to secure profits.

Leicester's success story: Skill or luck?

Considered 5,000/1 outsiders by bookmakers at the start of the 2015/16 season, the soccer world is still flabbergasted by Leicester’s City Premier League title. Could statistical analysis have predicted this rare event? Betting analyst, Joseph Buchdahl, takes a look at their performance to predict how well they are expected to do in the coming season. Here’s the verdict!

The ultimate guide on backing outsiders

The tendency to overvalue “longshots” and undervalue favourites is widely known in the world of sports betting and finances as the favourite-longshot bias. Learn what it is, how bookmakers take advantage of it and what you can do to survive it with a profit.

How to find value bets in the Champions League

You might have heard of Elo ratings but what is it exactly and how can they be applied to betting to increase your winnings? A must read for anybody planning to bet on the second leg matches of the UEFA Champions League semi-final phase.

How to run a Monte Carlo simulation in Excel

Following the discussion of Randomness in sporting outcomes, Joseph Buchdahl is taking the analysis of the factor of luck to the next level. Find out how randomness can influence your betting performance and how you can measure it by using Excel.