An academic approach on expected values and variances in bookmaker payouts
Do you know how bookmakers set odds?
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Betting Strategy & Psychology
To be profitable in sports betting, staking strategy is as important as finding value odds. With progressive betting systems promising almost infinite wealth, are they a good idea to follow? Here’s the academic answer to the question.
Research in neuro-economics, the science that seeks to explain human decision-making, has shown that money-making experiences are processed by the brain in the same way as chemically-induced highs, while financial losses are handled as if mortal dangers. So what can bettors do to increase their chance of profitable survival while walking a tightrope between euphoria and disaster?
What do you do when we are still at the beginning of the season and there is not enough data to draw reliable conclusions? In this article Dominic explains how bootstrapping can be used to minimize the effect of any parametric error due to small samples by giving two examples.
One way to distinguish winning from losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet and compare it with the Pinnacle Sports closing line. Consistently beating the closing odds at Pinnacle Sports can be a strong indicator of long-term betting profits.
Predominantly used for betting on US sports such as baseball and basketball, can Pythagorean expectation be used for betting on soccer? Analytics expert, Mark Taylor explains why this could be a potentially profitable strategy when betting on long-term markets.
- Betting Strategy
- Betting Psychology